According to scientists, the recent floods in Italy’s northeast, which caused significant damage and loss of life, are yet another example of the extreme and all-or-nothing weather patterns that have become increasingly common in a changing climate. The Emilia-Romagna region, which was hit particularly hard, is located between the Apennine mountains and the Adriatic Sea, making it especially vulnerable to sudden heavy rain.
While climate change is likely to bring more rain, the rain will fall on fewer days, making it less useful and more dangerous when it does come. Floods and landslides impacted 43 towns and closed more than 500 roads, causing billions of euros in damage.
Antonello Pasini, a climate scientist at Italy’s National Research Council, noted that there has been a trend towards an increase in annual rainfall, but a decrease in the number of rainy days and an increase in the intensity of the rain during those few days. This trend has been particularly devastating for northern Italy, which has experienced two years of drought due to less-than-average snowfall in the mountains. Without the typical snow runoff to fill lakes and rivers throughout the spring and summer, the region has gone dry, making it difficult for rainfall to improve the situation.
Nello Musumeci, Italy’s Civil Protection Minister, has stated that the Mediterranean’s new normal of extreme weather events requires Italy to adapt and rethink its flood protections nationwide. Musumeci cited a fatal storm-triggered landslide on the southern island of Ischia last fall, which left 12 people dead. He emphasized the need for changes in hydraulic infrastructure programming and engineering approaches to prevent floods that have left entire towns swamped with mud.
However, Musumeci acknowledged that prevention is not an easy sell due to costs. He also noted that Italy is not inclined to prevention and prefers rebuilding. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has stated that human greenhouse gas emissions have made for more frequent and intense weather extremes, including heavy precipitation events.